21 November 2009

Fluid trends

In the previous post in this series, the index of satisfaction (IS = optimism / happiness) had stabilized for a change. However, the most recent data clearly demonstrate that the long term trends are fraught with uncertainty.

SatisfactionIndex3

A sharp drop followed by a gradual recovery was nobody's guess. And once again, we don't know if it's optimism that's going thru a turbulent period or happiness is fluctuating depending on the amount of wine intake.

I will continue to monitor this crucial index and provide updates.

2 comments:

Psi Wavefunction said...

My father (an engineer) likes to make stock market 'predictions' based on the shape of the froth left on the coffee cup. Once, his prediction came [sort of] true, and he had an epic monologue about how awesome his prediction system was (using economist slang). Then he pointed out how the 'technical analysis' people were so wrong -- so I look over at one of those 'technical analysis' graphs, and there's lines FUCKING EVERYWHERE.

"Oh, WTF are those?!" "You know, just like I use coffee cups, these guys drew lines all over yesterday's stock market graph. Technical analysis is modern-day fortune telling. This is their crystal ball."

My respect for economists fell even lower. Glad to know that someone else makes a hobby of finding 'trends' in random places. You -could- use that for some extra profit on the side =P

xoggoth said...

Agree with last, they haven't a clue.

How many times have I brought investments after reading the wisdom of columnists in The Times Financial pages etc. only to lose money when the whole sector went flat for years?

The only bloke I saw who predicted the scale and timing of the credit crunch was a blogger, an IT contractor.